We’re running out of time’: UN warns of 3.1C temperature rise

The United Nations Emissions Gap Report 2024 highlights the critical necessity for nations to immediately begin lowering their emissions without any more delay.

“Climate crunch time is here,” says United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Executive Director Inger Andersen. Beginning immediately before the next round of climate promises, “we need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before.”

Should this fail, the 1.5-degree Celsius aim of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change “will soon be dead,” and the critical care unit will have to cope with temperatures considerably below two degrees Celsius.

We may fail to reach the climate targets

Presenting at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the paper explores the discrepancy between expected global emissions based on current country commitments and the required levels needed to restrict warming to significantly below 2 degrees Celsius while working for the 1.5 degrees Celsius target established in the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015.

According to recent studies, lowering the world temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next few years might not be possible. However, if countries pledge to reduce yearly greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and by 57% by 2035, this situation may be avoided. The next round of national contributions must complement this commitment with quick and forceful action.

The stated commitments seek to lower emissions and adapt to climate change’s consequences, including drought, floods, and harsh storms. With the following review set for the start of 2025 to be ready for the COP30 climate talks in Brazil, they underline the need to get the required financing and pledge to update the text every five years.

Balancing on a planetary tight rope

According to a new estimate, the planet is on track to face a 3.1-degree Celsius temperature rise should greenhouse gas emissions not significantly drop. This might have disastrous effects. This alarming warning has surfaced in view of governments’ inability to fulfil their commitments to solve climate change.

Emphasising that the emissions gap is a concrete fact rather than a theoretical abstraction, António Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General, states that rising emissions clearly correspond with the growing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, illustrating a solid link between the two.

In a video message, he warned, “We are on the brink of a global crisis.” The declaration says, “Leaders must either take decisive action to close the emissions gap or risk a catastrophic climate disaster that will disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable populations.”

Technologies that are reasonably priced can help

Beginning in November, the next United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, and there is an excellent chance that a whole discussion on ambitious national plans will start. He claims that this gathering starts a timeline for nations to provide fresh national climate action plans by the next year. One should anticipate this chronology to be finished.

He said, “Officials have reached a consensus to synchronise these strategies with the target of 1.5 degrees.”

He argued for changes in every single industry and underlined the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions all throughout the economy. He urged the G20 nations, who account for about 80 percent of all emissions, to lead this important endeavour.

“There is hope,” the United Nations chief said. “The most recent report shows that existing technologies are both cost-effective and capable of providing the necessary reductions in emissions by 2030 and 2035 to adhere to the 1.5°C threshold”

Clean energy can change the present line of activity

According to the study’s findings, emissions might be significantly lowered by as much as 31 gigatons of carbon dioxide by 2030. This would be around 52 percent of the recorded emissions in 2023. Furthermore, the expected reduction of 41 gigatons by 2035 will help to fulfil the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius within both timeframes.

Increased usage of solar photovoltaic and wind energy will help to provide 27 percent of the overall decrease by 2030 and then climb to 38 percent by 2035. Furthermore, the preservation of forests might supply around twenty percent of the required cuts in both years.

Among the other positive ideas underlined in the report include increasing energy efficiency, electrifying several sectors, and substituting alternative fuels in industry, transportation, and buildings.

However, the study indicates that great worldwide collaboration and thorough government plans will be needed to realise even a small proportion of this potential. The research also underlined the need to maximise environmental and social advantages while concurrently reducing trade-offs.